法新社
周三版的英國泰晤士報發表了一篇魏京生的文章，文章認為，世界經濟危機會在中國引發巨大動盪，並加速共產黨統治的終結。魏京生說，基於中國農民造反的"漫長歷史"，北京政府也知道這種威脅潛力。中國全國有越來越多的跡象表明，公開表達的不滿經常會轉化成暴力。 ( )
魏京生在文章中說，中國的失業率比官方公佈的要高得多，有的地區甚至達到20％，跟工資增長的停滯結合在一起，這會進一步引發人們對富裕階層的仇恨。他認為，中國政府處在一個"可怕的進退兩難的境地"，即或者以有力的經濟和社會改革來幫助普通百姓，或者支持"官僚階級"。如果不象美國在20世紀30年代那樣採取"新政"，公民就會造反。魏京生還寫道，中國許多人認為，2009年或2010年，人們對共產黨的容忍將達到極限。
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全文
泰晤士報:中國最著名的持不同政見人士預測，中共政府將陷入憤怒的窮人和權貴的富人的陷阱之中
怨憤的浪潮威脅着中[共]國
-- 魏京生
現在全球正遭遇着一場經濟危機。像快要淹死的人抓到了一根稻草一樣，西方的一些人說：中共政府有很多錢，快去求他們來救我們走出危機吧。但他們沒想到北京政府這根稻草自己也不知道怎麼救自己。
在看到兩萬億美元的外匯存底的同時，很多人也注意到了中國巨大的貧富差距：0.4%的人擁有中國70%的財富；3億多人民（占人口的五分之一）每天的收入不到一美元。這個財富極端集中的情況是一個嚴重的問題並威脅到中共政府緊攥的權力。
首先，這意味着能夠消費的人太少，無法維繫一個健康的國內市場。因而，這個被稱為"世界加工廠"的經濟特別依賴於國際經濟的繁榮。中共政府昨天公佈，與往年同期相比，2008年12月出口額下降了2.8%，超過了11月份的下降（2.2%），這是十年來下降最快的速度。
出口業的滑坡，殃及到了其他行業。中共政府聲稱目前城市的失業率是4%，但是官方的這種數據不可信。根據一些比較嚴謹的統計者的資料，失業率可能已超過20%。這意味着中國的經濟危機比美國和歐洲都嚴重許多。
第二，失業率的增長和工人工資卻得不到增長，推動了仇富心理，也威脅到了統治階級的地位。對中共官方來說，幾千萬農民工，是最緊迫需要解決的威脅，因為他們過節後將返城，卻由於工廠關閉而無職可尋。中國的農民有造反的悠久傳統。
中共政府緊跟在美國政府之後，於2008年11月宣佈投入4萬億人民幣（約6千億美元）公共消費金來救市。但這在中國是行不通的。因為中國的政府不是民選的，而是由官僚資產階級所操縱的。所以它不會為了普通老百姓的利益而行動，而是會首先去拯救占統治地位的官僚資產階級的大企業。這些企業則會把財產轉移到中國之外的安全地帶。
這一點已經是很明顯的：從洛杉磯到日內瓦湖畔，超級富有的中國人正在爭搶並用現鈔購置房地產。隨着失業潮而來的社會秩序的失控，社會將更加動亂，並使得更多的資本逃離中國。結果是加強這個惡性循環。
所以，中共政府落在可怕的兩難的陷阱之中：要麼是幫助普通老百姓（像1930年代美國總統羅斯福"新政"的作法），要麼就是為官僚資產階級牟利。但卻不能兼之。
如果中共政府不採用"新政"的方式，它就面臨人民的造反和政府被推翻的威脅。越來越多的證據表明，全國各地的普遍不滿，正在轉向暴力。2006年中共官方公佈的"突發事件"（"抗議"的委婉說法）是八萬多起。據稱2008年超過了十萬起。這種怨憤的高漲正是中國歷史的重演：各個朝代都以暴力達到高潮而結終。
軍隊的鎮壓也不會有用。因為士兵的親屬可能就是失業的農民工；軍官的家庭也會遭受危機的打擊。如果中共政府真的要幫助普通老百姓，大商人和官僚的統治階級就會推翻它，換一個能保護其自身利益的政權。
第一個替罪羊就是總理溫家寶。他在四川地震後的眼淚特別出名。但他的眼淚可能騙得了老百姓，卻騙不了官僚資產階級。他的結局已經定了，剩下的只是時機的選擇。
中國是個統治階級內部發生很多政變的國家。上個世紀七十年代就有兩例。一個是1971年，林彪主導的、不成功的反對毛澤東的政變。第二個就是1976年，華國鋒的成功政變，推翻了"四人幫"，結束了文化大革命。共產黨內部的政變會形成一個暫時穩定的局面，給予機會着手解決面臨的經濟危機。
如果政府不能拿出一個解決方法，它就會垮台。在民主國家，政府更換是個正常的過程。但在專制國家，那卻是個你死我活的過程。特別是胡錦濤和溫家寶執政以來，官員的輪替帶有越來越重的血腥味。作為政治鬥爭的一部分，被槍斃和下獄的官員越來越多，通常的理由則是懲罰腐敗。中共內不同利益集團的內部矛盾越來越大，大家都想拿敵手當替罪羊。
從各種渠道和國內接觸到的各階層人士反應來看，人們估計，2009年天安門大屠殺20周年，或者2010年，將是中國老百姓對中國共產黨忍耐的極限。一個特別的案件很能代表大眾的怨恨情緒。一個叫楊佳的人在挨打後作為報復殺死了六名警察並被執行死刑。但對許多中國的老百姓來說，他成了反抗的象徵。社會各界人士把他當作是俠盜羅賓漢式的英雄，網民公開給予支持。開庭時，法院門口擁擠着眾多支持他的民眾。他的人望栩栩如生地說明了中國人民的造反情緒。其強度遠遠超過了七十年代對毛澤東政權的仇視，以及八十年代對腐敗的仇視。
現在中國的大多數人和古代不同了。他們不再渴望一個明智的皇帝和一些剛正不阿的法官。他們已經懂得，只有西方式的民主制度，才可以保證他們想得到的東西：富裕、安全和受到公正的對待。統治階級也是這樣想的，這是為什麼他們把財產和子女轉移到西方。
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泰晤士報註：魏京生因為從事人權活動，在1979-1993期間及1994-1997期間，為中共政府所囚禁。1997年他被放逐到美國。1996年，他獲得薩哈羅夫自由思想獎和羅伯特甘迺迪人權獎。
原文網頁連接:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5512157.ece
魏京生基金會
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A436-W243
魏京生基金會新聞與文章發佈號：A436-W243
Release Date: January 14, 2009
發佈日：2009年1月14日
Topic: A Tidal Wave of Discontent Threatens China (Wei Jingsheng's article published on The Times in London on January 14, 2009)
標題：怨憤的浪潮威脅着中國 (魏京生發表在英國泰晤士報上的文章)
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此號以英文為準（英文在前，中文在後）
Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2009/report2009-01/TimesUK090114WeiJScrisisChinaA436-W243.htm which contains identical information.
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A Tidal Wave of Discontent Threatens China
The most famous Chinese dissident predicts the Government will be trapped between the angry poor and the powerful rich
-- Wei Jingsheng
The whole world is suffering from an economic crisis. Some in the West, like a desperate drowning man clutching at a straw, have said the Chinese Government has a lot of money, let us beg them to save us from the crisis. But they do not realise that the Government in Beijing does not know how to save itself.
China has a $2 trillion foreign currency reserve but it also suffers from a huge disparity between the rich and poor: while 0.4 per cent of the people hold 70 per cent of the wealth of the country, a fifth of the population - more than 300 million Chinese - have daily incomes of less than one dollar. This extreme concentration of wealth is a serious problem for the Chinese Government and threatens its grip on power.
First, it means that there are too few consumers to sustain a domestic market. So "the workshop of the world" is particularly reliant on the fortunes of the world economy. The Chinese Government announced yesterday that exports had fallen at their fastest rate in a decade, declining by 2.8 per cent in December, on top of a 2.2 per cent year-on-year fall in November. China's exporters are collapsing, pulling down other businesses with them. The Government claims that unemployment is running at 4 per cent in urban areas; but the official figures cannot be believed. According to some serious statisticians, the unemployment rate may have already passed 20 per cent. This makes the severity of the economic crisis in China much sharper than in the US and Europe.
Second, growing unemployment and stagnant wages will stoke the rising resentment against the super-rich, threatening the position of the ruling class. The Government regards the tens of millions of peasant workers who will return to the cities after the Chinese holiday season to closed factories and no jobs as an urgent threat. Chinese peasants have a long tradition of rebellion.
Following in the footsteps of the US Government, the Chinese Government in November announced a four trillion yuan ($600 billion) public spending package to get the country out of the slump. But this won't work in China. Because China's Government is not elected by the people its policies are run on behalf of the bureaucratic-capitalist class. Instead of acting in the interests of ordinary Chinese, it will try to save the big business enterprises of the ruling elite. But the owners of these big businesses will simply move their assets to safety outside China.
The evidence can already be seen: from Los Angeles to the shores of Lake Geneva, China's super-rich are anxiously snapping up real estate, paying with cash. The more turmoil there is - as unemployment shakes the social order - the more capital will flee China. This will exacerbate the vicious cycle.
So the Chinese Government is trapped by a terrible dilemma. It can act to help ordinary Chinese (in the manner of Roosevelt's New Deal in the 1930s) or the bureaucratic-capitalist class. But it cannot do both.
If the Chinese Government does not take a New Deal approach, it risks the Chinese people revolting and overthrowing those in power. Across the country there is mounting evidence of popular discontent turning to violence. According to the Chinese Government there were more than 80,000 "sudden incidents" - its euphemism for protests - in 2006; it is now thought that last year the figure rose to 100,000. This rising tide of discontent is Chinese history repeating itself - the end of each dynasty was marked by a crescendo of violence.
Military suppression cannot work. Soldiers are the relatives of the peasant workers who have lost their jobs; the families of the military officers will also suffer through the economic crisis. But if the Chinese Government does act to protect the ordinary Chinese, the ruling class of big businessmen and bureaucrats will overthrow it, and replace it with a Government that will protect its interests.
The first scapegoat will be Wen Jiabao, the Prime Minister. While his tears, most famously seen after the Sichuan earthquake, could fool the average person, they will not fool the bureaucratic-capitalist class. His end is set, except for the timing of his departure.
China has seen many political coups within the ruling class. The most recent examples are from the 1970s. Lin Biao failed in his coup against Mao Zedong in 1971; while Hua Guofeng overthrew the Gang of Four and ended the Cultural Revolution in 1976. A political coup within the Communist Party could provide the temporary stability necessary to solve the economic crisis.
But if a solution is not found then the Government will fall. In a democracy, the end of a government is a normal event. However, in a dictatorship it is a matter of life or death. Since Hu Jintao, the President, and Wen took power, changing officials has become bloodier. As part of the political struggle for power more and more officials have been executed or sent to prison - usually under the cloak of punishing corruption. The internal conflict between the various vested interests within the Communist Party is getting bigger with each wanting to make the rival factions scapegoats.
From what I hear from people of all backgrounds from inside China they believe, 20 years on from the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, that time is up for the regime - they believe that in 2009 or 2010 the Chinese will reach the limit of their toleration for the Communist Party. One particular case sums up this mood of discontent: Yang Jia, a man who was executed last year for the murder of six policemen he killed as revenge for being beaten, became a symbol of resistance to many Chinese. He was hailed as a hero on many blogs, pro-Yang grafitti appeared across the country and crowds turned up at court to support him during his trial. The popularity of this man illustrates vividly the rebellious mood of the Chinese people. The intensity of this feeling far surpasses the resentment that was directed against Mao's Government in the 1970s or the corruption of the 1980s.
The people of modern China are different from their ancestors: they no longer expect a wise emperor and fair judges to rule over them. They know that only democracy will guarantee what they want: prosperity, security and fair treatment. The Chinese ruling class think this too - that's why they already send their children and their money to the West.
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Note by the newspaper: Wei Jingsheng was imprisoned by the Chinese State in 1979-93 and 1994-97 for his human rights activism. In 1997 he was deported to the United States. He was awarded the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought and the Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights Award in 1996
Background
* China's exports slump in sharpest fall in decade
* The boom years are over for Chinese exports
* China told to prepare for a global recession
* Hong Kong feels effect of slowdown in China
Original link of the article:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5512157.ece
