網址：http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/05/080516-earthquake-predicted.html

    
    我根據第一個網址提到的一年前，已經有了關於警告中國有地震情況的研究描述，我找到了現在下面的文章。
    這是美國地球和空間科學知識網站在[地殼]部分該論文網址：http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006TC001987.shtml
    
    文章作者共六人，文章的有兩個作者是中國四川的，是第三和第四作者。另外有兩名美國的，一名英國的和一名瑞士的。文章太專業，大家可用翻譯軟件翻譯一下。同時，這只是概述，不是全文，需要註冊才能看到全文。有興趣的可以去看看。重點我標成黑體，作為參考！
    
    TECTONICS, VOL. 26, TC4005, doi:10.1029/2006TC001987, 2007
    
    題目：Active tectonics of the Beichuan and Pengguan faults at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau
     關於對西藏高原東邊緣北川和Pengguan斷層頻繁地質活動的研究
    
    Alexander L. Densmore
    Institute of Hazard and Risk Research and Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK
    
    Michael A. Ellis
    Center for Earthquake Research and Information, University of Memphis, Memphis, Tennessee, USA
    
    Yong Li
    National Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan, China 李勇 成都理工大學博士生導師
    
    Rongjun Zhou 周榮軍 四川地震局工程師
    Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
    
    Gregory S. Hancock
    Department of Geology, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA
    
    Nicholas Richardson
    Department of Earth Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
    
    Abstract概述
    
    The steep, high-relief eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau has undergone rapid Cenozoic cooling and denudation yet shows little evidence for large-magnitude shortening or accommodation generation in the foreland basin. We address this paradox by using a variety of geomorphic observations to place constraints on the kinematics and slip rates of several large faults that parallel the plateau margin. The Beichuan and Pengguan faults are active, dominantly dextral-slip structures that can be traced continuously for up to 200 km along the plateau margin. Both faults offset fluvial fill terraces that yield inheritance-corrected, cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages of <15 kyr, indicating latest Pleistocene activity. The Pengguan fault appears to have been active in the Holocene at two sites along strike. Latest Quaternary apparent throw rates on both faults are variable along strike but are typically <1 mm yr−1. Rates of strike-slip displacement are likely to be several times higher, probably ∼1–10 mm yr−1 but remain poorly constrained. Late Quaternary folding and dextral strike-slip has also occurred along the western margin of the Sichuan Basin, particularly associated with the present-day mountain front. These observations support models for the formation and maintenance of the eastern plateau margin that do not involve major upper crustal shortening. They also suggest that activity on the margin-parallel faults in eastern Tibet may represent a significant seismic hazard to the densely populated Sichuan Basin. 他們也指出在西藏東的平行地緣斷層的運動對於人口密集的四川盆地呈現出一個顯著的地震危險。
    
    Received 28 April 2006; accepted 2 April 2007; published 17 July 2007.
    2006年4月28 地殼 收到此文；2007年4月2號採納；2007年7月17發表。
    
    關鍵詞Keywords: Tibetan Plateau; geomorphology.
    
    索引Index Terms: 8107 Tectonophysics: Continental neotectonics (8002); 8111 Tectonophysics: Continental tectonics: strike-slip and transform; 7221 Seismology: Paleoseismology (8036); 1824 Hydrology: Geomorphology: general (1625).