11月9日至12日召開的有376名成員的中共中央委員會第18屆三中全會顯現了推動未來經濟與社會改革的願望。但其主席習近平的工作報告卻自相矛盾。比如他提到「市場在資源配置中起決定性作用」，但又「堅持公有制主體地位，發揮國有經濟主導作用。」
無論如何，概括起來是必須「堅持黨的領導。」這次全會的主要結果好像是成立一個直屬中共中央領導之下的「國家安全委員會」，從而表明中共18屆三中全會毫無新意地繼續着由鄧小平在1978年制定的經濟開放，但政治上堅持更為嚴厲鎮壓的政策。
*（中共）政權的恐懼*
既然中國已經建有包括司法部、國防部、公安部、警察、武裝警察部隊等完整的安全體系以及整套的鎮壓系統，那為什麼還要再建立一個安全委員會呢?其原因就是恐懼籠罩中國最高領導層。中共領導人擔心社會爆炸，而驅使他們不斷拿出更多的錢來"維穩"，以至於很單純的人都不禁要問：黨的真正的唯一的敵人是不是全體人民?
中共黨內有一些有影響力的幹部也希望政治改革。如因1989去世而造成了過去四十年中最重要的民主抗議運動的胡耀邦之子胡德平，就是希望開放的象徵。
這些人堅持建立真正的民主及在其之上重新分配財富的需要。他們的民主並不是習近平的前任胡錦濤愛說的「中國特色的民主」。
但政改的時機有可能已經逝去。中國有句話：「改革亡黨，不改亡國。」中國之所以沒有西方前共產主義國家所經歷的民主發展進程，是因為中國的富裕階級害怕失去既得利益，而窮人也希望能儘快致富。
一些人盲目追求成功，接受任何不合理的工作和工資條件，另一些人則害怕他們的巨額財富被剝奪。所以，得過且過。。。
*有錢人已移民海外*
但同時，根據胡潤百富2012年7月的報告，超過60%的中國富人或是已經移民國外，或是已經填好移民表格;他們之中超過85%的有錢人將子女送到國外最好的大學去留學。中國社會兩極分化不斷擴大。
如果按照基尼係數計算社會不平等的規模為0-1，而任何大於0.4是社會動亂的預兆。中國的指標在2012年底已接近0.5。根據這些數據，中國社會普遍的反抗不久就會爆炸。這也說明為什麼中國億萬富翁及中共高級領導人會害怕。
事實上，習近平完全被其同行及官僚機構所包圍。他在2012年11月剛上台時有關取消名叫「勞教」的行政拘留營的建議已經告吹。一些省份實施了，另一些沒有，沒有人知道餘下的故事...
如果中共走上政改之路，其官員和高級管理人員就會受損，也沒有人知道法律之下新的黨領導的下場。
以三中全會前剛被判處終身監禁的政治後台很硬的薄熙來為例。他的後繼者可能會做的，將不是靜靜地等待被逮捕和肯定會的判刑，而是採用武力。
*官員的腐敗及財富*
的確，有關財富的信息變得更加準確，並導致更多的憤慨。六月份，彭博新聞社估計習近平家族的財富為5億美元。而紐約時報在十月份發表它有關前總理溫家寶家族擁有27億的繼續調查出的報告。這兩個媒體的中英文網站都已被完全封鎖。
腐敗和裙帶關係的罪惡還沒有完全在人們面前爆炸。如何解釋僅僅是上海的一個警察局長就在他的家裏藏有200萬美元的現金?難道是因為他在主要由台灣、日本、韓國和其他亞洲商人佔據的靜安區?
最近發生在天安門廣場和山西以及其它地方的爆炸案只是社會重大危機的初步徵兆而已。1989年提出「和平，理性，非暴力」口號的天安門廣場示威面對如今越來越沒有暴力底線的專制還能重演嗎?
--瑪麗·侯芷明(漢學家)和魏京生(前持不同政見者)
魏京生：反對鄧小平政策的頭號持不同政見者，被囚於1979年至1997年。他目前流亡在美國。
瑪麗·侯芷明：漢學家及中國團結主席。她與伯納德·德波合作了傳記"不屈不撓的魏京生"(藍色中國，2005年)。
China: the Explosion of Violence is Close
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The Monde.fr|19/11/2013 at8:17• Updated19/11/2013 at14h51|
By Marie Holzman(sinologist) and Wei Jingsheng(former dissident)
The376 members of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China met on Nov.9 to12 with the willingness to deliberate coming economic and societal reforms. However, the work report by its President Xi Jinping had some contradictory phrases, such as:"The function of the market is decisive in allocating resources" and yet"we must maintain the dominant role in our system of collective ownership and continue the state-directed economy."
Anyway, to summarize, Xi Jinping means"we must keep the leadership of the Communist Party". It seems that the main result of this plenum was the creation of a new Commission, called the"Committee of State Security" directly under the central government. It is therefore means to continue without change much of the economic reform policy implemented in1978 by Deng Xiaoping while maintaining even stronger political repression.
* REIGN OF FEAR*
As the Chinese system already has the ministries of justice, the national defense, security, and its police, armed police, and a variety of tools of repression, why there is need to establish a new committee? That is because fear reigns in the highest echelons of power. Leaders fear social explosion and that is what drives them to put more money into"maintaining stability" to the point that one wonders if the only real enemy of the Communist Party is the entire Chinese people.
There exists a minority of influential officials within the Party who would like to see real political reforms. Hu Deping, son of Hu Yaobang, whose death in1989 had caused the most important movement of democratic protest of the last forty years, symbolizes the desire for openness.
The people around him insist on the need to begin to redistribute wealth, while laying the foundations of a true democracy-- not the"democracy to the characteristics of China" beloved by Hu Jintao, the predecessor Xi Jinping.
But the time for implementing political reforms may be already passed. As is colloquially said in Chinese:"If the Communist Party reforms, it will be finished. If the party does not reform, China will be finished." The reason that China did not follow the steps of the democratic development of former communist countries of the West is because the emerged wealthy class is worried about losing its vested interest, while the poor still hope to soon reach some easement.
For some, the blind desire to succeed made them accept indecent working conditions and wages; while for others, the fear of losing their acquired wealth makes them disillusioned. So, each day that passes is a day gained...
* THE RICHEST HAVE ALREADY EMIGRATED*
Meanwhile, according to a study published in the Hurun Report in July2012, more than60% of the richest Chinese have already emigrated or filled out the forms necessary to emigrate, while more than85% of them have sent their children to study the best universities abroad. Social polarization is growing.
According to the Gini coefficient, which calculates social inequality on a scale of0-1, any number greater than0.4 is a harbinger of social unrest. The Chinese coefficient was already close to0.5 at the end2012. If we rely on these numbers, widespread social revolt can no longer be delayed in China, which would explain the anxiousness of billionaires and senior party officials.
In fact, President Xi Jinping is completely surrounded by peers and its bureaucracy. The proposals made by Xi when he took power in November2012 to remove administrative detention camps called"laojiao" have fizzled. Some provinces have implemented this decision, some have not, and nobody knows the rest of the story...
Officials and senior executives have too much to lose if the party embarked on political reform; what's more, nobody knows what would happen if a new member of the party leadership were to fall under the law.
Bo Xilai, who was sent to life in prison right before this3rd plenum, was an example. What his successor will do probably will involve force, rather than waiting quietly for arrest and certain conviction.
* CORRUPTION AND FORTUNE OF OFFICERS*
Indeed, the information becomes more accurate about the wealth and causes a growing indignation. In June, Bloomberg News estimated the wealth of the family clan of Xi Jinping to be somewhere near$500 million. In October, the New York Times published its continued investigation on the wealth of the clan of former prime minister Wen Jiabao valued at a total of"at least$2.7 billion". The sites in English and Chinese of both media are now completely blocked.
The evils of corruption and nepotism yet explode in everyone's eyes. How to explain how a simple police commissioner in a district of Shanghai was taken with$2 million in cash hidden in his drawers? Is it because he was in the Jing'an District, which is primarily occupied by Taiwanese, Japanese, Korean and other Asian businessmen?
Recent explosions in Tiananmen Square and the recent attacks that occurred in Shanxi Province and elsewhere are the first symptoms of a major social crisis. Facing a dictatorship that applies violence without a bottom line, will the pacifist slogan"peaceful, rational and non-violence" by the activists in Tiananmen Square in1989 be able to replay again?
- Marie Holzman(sinologist) and Wei Jingsheng(former dissident)
Wei Jingsheng is a prominent political dissident to Deng Xiaoping's policy. He was imprisoned from1979 to1997. He currently lives in exile in the United States.
Marie Holzman is a Sinologist and president of Solidarité Chine. She is also co-author with Bernard Debord's biography"Wei Jingsheng, an inflexible Chinese"(Blue China,2005).