An enveloping gloom
CHINA』S Olympic pageantry is under way. Dozens of dignitaries, presidents and prime ministers have gathered in Beijing for an extravaganza that many Chinese see as a celebration of their nation’s rise. But for all their professed joy at the spectacle, China’s own leaders are fretful.
中國的奧運盛事正如火如荼的進行。數位名人、國家要人都集聚北京參加在許多中國人看來這場慶祝中國崛起的盛事。中國領導人自然是喜形於色，但也不免煩燥不安。
The massive security around Beijing and the authorities』 strenuous efforts to keep potential protesters at bay is evidence of nervousness. These measures have gone beyond what might be expected for an event attended by so many bigwigs. In the past few months, instability has roiled Tibet and Tibetan-inhabited areas. Anti-Chinese resentment has been simmering in neighbouring Xinjiang too. Though sparsely populated, these regions make up around 40% of China’s land mass.
北京戒備森嚴，政府也下大力氣防止可能發生的抗議，這都將中國的緊張表露無遺。對於由許多要人出席的運動會而言，這些措施已經超過了範圍。在過去的幾個月里，西藏和藏人居住區不穩定。鄰省新疆也有反華情緒。儘管這些地區人口少，但整體面積佔國土面積的的40%。
On August 4th, four days before the start of the games, 16 policemen were killed in Kashgar in Xinjiang by two men suspected by the authorities of being Muslim separatists. It was one of the bloodiest attacks blamed on terrorists in recent years in China. Their weapons were crude: a lorry used to slam into the jogging officers, machetes and home-made explosives. Kashgar’s party chief, Shi Dagang, said terrorists were 「trying to turn 2008 into a year of mourning and a year of terror」.
8月4日，也就是奧運會開幕前4天，在新疆喀什有兩名嫌疑穆斯林分裂分子殺害了16名警察。這是近幾年來在中國恐怖分子發起的最為血腥的襲擊。他們所用了用來衝撞訓練部隊的卡車、砍刀和自製炸藥等殘忍手段。喀什的黨委書記說恐怖分子妄想「將2008年變成哀悼和恐怖的一年。」
The threat of violence is probably being overstated by the authorities to justify suppressing any kind of peaceful protest during the games. Given the level of security in Beijing, few expect more than occasional small incidents. These are most likely to involve foreign supporters of various human-rights causes in China, particularly those relating to Tibetans, Xinjiang’s Uighurs and religion. On August 6th two Americans and two British citizens raised banners calling for a 「free Tibet」 on poles close to the main stadium. They were ordered out of the country.
或許中共政府對暴力的威脅有點誇大其詞，以便為鎮壓一切奧運期間的和平抗議正名。北京重兵把守，因此最多只會發生小動亂，很可能由那些中國人權事業的外國反對者，尤其是與西藏人、新疆維吾爾人和新疆地區有關的人所為。8月6日兩名美國人和兩名英國公民在主體育場附近的杆子上拉起橫幅，叫囂「解放西藏」。事後，他們被勒令回國。
The state of the economy, though not yet as clear a challenge as that posed by restless minorities, is worrying China’s leaders too. They have long been trying to prevent it from growing too fast, but now they fear that growth is slowing and may slow further. National income grew by 10.1% in the year to the second quarter, compared with 10.6% in the year to the first quarter and 11.2% to the last quarter of 2007 (see chart).
儘管經濟所帶來的挑戰不及不安分的少數民族那麼明顯，但也同樣讓中國領導人憂心忡忡。他們一直以來都在防止經濟過熱，但擔心增速減緩，而且可能還會更慢。到第二季度，中國國民收入增長10.1%，到第一季度是10.6%，2007年最後一個季度是11.2%。
Exporters are anxious. Much of the fall results from a big decline in net exports. Reasons for this include an appreciating yuan, cuts in export-tax rebates and recession or slowdown in China’s main export markets. Manufacturers of low value-added export goods such as clothes and textiles, which employ millions of workers, are among the hardest hit. The state-controlled media have reported many closures of small and medium-sized businesses in coastal areas. Chinese leaders, previously more eager to nurture high-tech industries, toured textile factories last month in a show of political support.
出口商焦慮不安。大部分的出口下降都是因為淨出口的大幅下降。原因在於：人民幣升值、出口退稅減少和中國主要出口市場的蕭條或是增長減緩。其中受影響最大的就是服裝和紡織品等低附加值產品的製造商，他們僱傭了多達幾百億工人。國家控制的媒體已經報道了很多沿海城市中小企業倒閉。中國領導人，此前更急於培育高新產業，上個月也視察了紡織加工廠，以顯示政治支持。
Later in July, a meeting of the ruling Politburo signalled a policy shift. The formerly oft-repeated injunction to prevent overheating was dropped. Instead the leadership decided to focus on maintaining 「steady and fast」 economic growth, though it said it would continue its efforts to combat inflation.
7月下旬，執政的政治局召開會議，發出政策轉變的信號，放棄了之前所反覆強調的防止經濟過熱的政策，而是更加注重「又快又穩」的增長，但同時將繼續控制通貨膨脹。
Since the meeting there have been moves to placate exporters, such as easing controls on lending to small and medium businesses. Officials are relieved that the rise in the consumer-price index has slowed from a 12-year high of 8.7% in February to 7.1% in June, thanks partly to a decline in meat prices. But growth-boosting measures risk fuelling inflation. Wholesale prices are rising ominously fast, and big increases in state-controlled fuel prices have raised fears of worse to come.
這次會議採取了一些舉措來安撫出口商，如緩解對中小企業借貸的控制。由於豬肉價格有所回落， 消費者指數增幅從2月的全年最高8.7%下降到6月的7.1%，這讓中國領導人鬆了口氣。但是刺激增長的措施可能會加劇通貨膨脹。零售價格增長極快，國家控制的燃油價格的大幅增長，這讓人們擔心情況可能會越來越糟。
Continued high growth would be good news for the classes—a constituency regarded by the party as vital to its grip on power. The past few months have been testing times for them. Contrary to widely held expectations that the stockmarket would keep on booming until the games, valuations have plummeted since their peak last October. A side-effect of this has been the shift of some small investors』 money into other risky ventures. In early July the founder of a company involved in commodities-futures trading allegedly fled to America with millions of dollars of customers』 money. Angry investors gathered at its headquarters in Beijing to the consternation of officials anxious to ensure a trouble-free Olympics.
持續高增長對於中產階級而言可能是個好消息，中共政府將中產階級看作是掌權的至關重要的因素。過去的幾個月對他們來講是一個試驗期。過去他們普遍認為股市在奧運期間也會一直紅火，但事與願違，市值在去年10月達到高峰後就一落千丈。這產生的負作用就是一些小的投資者將資金轉用於風險投資。7月初，有報道稱，一家進行商品期貨交易的公司創始人攜消費者的數百萬美元潛逃到美國。憤怒的投資者在北京總部集會，這使渴望奧運會平安無事的中國官員驚惶失措。
There are growing worries too in some parts of China about the once seemingly irrepressible property market. Officials from the National Bureau of Statistics quoted by the state-controlled media this week said huge profits reaped by many in this sector over the past decade had come to an end. In Beijing residential apartments sales (measured by floor space) fell almost 50% in the first half of the year compared with the same period a year ago.
中國的一些部門對於曾經看起來無法控制的房地產市場也越來越擔心。本周，媒體援引國家統計局官員的話稱，過去十年在房地產市場賺得瓢滿缽滿，但這種情況壽終就寢了。在北京，今年上半年的居民房(以佔地面積計算)比去年同期下降將近50%。
Chinese leaders can console themselves with the thought that the country as a whole is unlikely to suffer the problem endured by some previous Olympic hosts: a post-games downturn brought on by a sudden drop in investment and consumption. Beijing’s economy accounts for less than 5% of China’s GDP. But President Hu Jintao, at a rare press conference a week before the games, spoke of 「greater challenges and problems」 confronting China’s economy as a result of global uncertainty. It has already begun to feel them.
中國領導人或許可以自我安慰，認為中國從整體而言不會面臨前奧運會主辦國的問題：奧運過後，投資和消費嘎然而止導致經濟下滑。北京市的GDP還不到全國的5%。儘管如此，胡綿濤在奧運會召開前一周不同尋常的召開了一次記者招待會。會中他稱全球的不確定性使中國經濟面臨「更大的挑戰和更多的問題」。中國已經開始有所體會了。