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范驚宇:中興帶給我們的思考究竟是什麼

中共統治下的生態只有利於舉國體制和房地產,而絲毫不利於芯片這樣的高科技,我們細緻對比來看,經營房地產速度快,通過政商關係拿地拿容積率再拿下銀行貸款事情基本就成了,技術層面要求並不太高;芯片則耗時,需要積累和培養技術人才,最大的關鍵詞在創造。房地產可以依靠濫用的權力和腐敗作為最有力的土壤,芯片的土壤卻是洗腦填鴨教育和山寨思想,這樣的土壤最不利科技創新。

中興被封殺的事件近期火熱,先是被美國商務部判了死刑,隨後中興宣布主要業務已經停止,再後川普指示商務部放生,再到川普表態談判前景不樂觀,而美眾議院緊急通過修正案以阻止商務部重新談判中興禁售令,最後近期在本周達成協議,用10億美元(約合64億元人民幣)的罰款換取美國解除近乎致命的處罰措施後,這家電信巨頭將得以恢復智能手機和網絡設備製造。中興事件激發了芯片討論的熱潮。

談起中興事件,國內很多媒體處在看山就是山的層面,認為中興給的教訓就是技不如人,核心科技還是掌握在歐美髮達國家手中;根據這樣的結論後清朝廷習近平提出了“核心技術是國之重器”,和前清的“師夷長技以制夷”幾乎如出一轍,而這正是前後兩個清朝廷的短視和對根因的無視,即只注重器物的學習,而故意忽視制度學習。提出師夷長技以制夷的理念後,解決方案就只剩下舉國體製造芯片,新聞中北京砸錢千億開發芯片,馬雲收購五家半導體企業,董明珠稱砸錢500億做芯片,頗有新時代高科技大躍進的味道,殊不知舉國體制和大躍進只適合原子彈這類主要是依靠的大規模投入和時間的工程,而不適合依靠市場機制和持續創新的高科技行業。

我們為什麼造不出競爭力強的芯片來?文昭先生提出了“生態”的說法,我狗尾續貂加了點自己的看法:中共統治下的生態只有利於舉國體制和房地產,而絲毫不利於芯片這樣的高科技,我們細緻對比來看,經營房地產速度快,通過政商關係拿地拿容積率再拿下銀行貸款事情基本就成了,技術層面要求並不太高;芯片則耗時,需要積累和培養技術人才,最大的關鍵詞在創造。房地產可以依靠濫用的權力和腐敗作為最有力的土壤,芯片的土壤卻是洗腦填鴨教育和山寨思想,這樣的土壤最不利科技創新;房地產以03年後確定的房地產成為支柱產業的政策作為陽光而蓬勃發展,芯片則是政策和舉國體制難以推動的行業,瘋狂砸錢慘敗收場的前車之鑒已經有了很多;房地產以13億分母為基數的市場作為龐大的水源,而國產芯片以政府採購為水源,政府採購結束水源則斷。以這種生態為因,生出了如今房地產和芯片兩種結果,經濟生態決定了房地產泡沫經濟的興和高科技實體企業的衰,房地產泡沫經濟的興盛又更加擠壓了高科技實體經濟,就像段子里講的,賣了房去創業辛苦二十年賺的錢卻買不回當年賣掉的房產,這樣的生態只能越來越鼓勵投機,速成,需要持續創新又不能馬上見效的事情比如芯片當然是無視和被擠壓。

生態是以什麼為基礎形成的呢?是政治制度。深度腐敗,低人權,洗腦教育是一黨專制的產物,想要高科技的興盛則需要自由氛圍,需要啟蒙教育而非洗腦填鴨,以人為本重視人的權利,尊重知識產權而非鼓勵山寨剽竊;生態孕育產業,是產業之母,體制孕育生態,是生態之母,前清朝失敗的原因亦在於只去學習器物,這是因果顛倒,本末倒置。要解決房產和芯片的困局,必須改變生態,而幾十年累積出的生態積重難返,執政者提出的口號仍然不治標更不治本;實事求是地講,推翻腐朽舊制度,才能重造健康生態,才是解決問題的長遠和根本之道。

因此,最終很容易推演到,推翻共產黨一黨獨裁專制,推動國家走向民主自由,是經濟長足健康發展的根基。

范驚宇6月11日

ZTE was sentenced to death penalty by US commerce Department few weeks ago, after that ZTE’s main business operations have ceased due to the ban imposed by the U.S. government but,unexpectedly President Donald Trump took to Twittersaying that he was working with President Xi in China to help dig ZTE out of the hole it's been in for the past few weeks. Now, the House Appropriations Committeehas issued an orderpreventing Trump from doing anything. Clearly ZTE became a piece of the gambling between the US and China.

When talking about ZTE, lots of Chinese media can’t or dare not to dig deeper, they only say what they see, and think the lesson taught by ZTE crisis is we have fallen behind in technology, which is in western countries’ hands. According to such a point, Xi jin ping put“Technology matters” forward, which is exactly same with Qing dynasty’s idea: Defeating western country by learning from their technology. Now we know such an idea is shortsighted and discarded of main reason, only emphasizeon theimportance of technology, but not learn from their politicalsystem first. Therefore, the only choice is to develop technology by using whole nation’s resource, Beijing plan to invest onehundredbillion on chip, Mayun purchased5 chip companies, Dong mingzhu said she’d like to invest50 billion on chip, kind of like The Great Leap in1958 which was proved to be a failure. They don’t know great leap forward movement is only suitable fornuclearweapons, rather than high-tech which needs Constant innovation.

Why can’t Chinese companies produce competitive chip productions? Mr. Wen Zhao puts forward the notion“ecology”, base on“ecology”, I’d like to expand it briefly. Under the rule of Communist Party, the Eco-system make real estate get benefits, high-tech industry get hurt, real estate and high-tech are the two sides of one system: Real estate is fast, to bribe the officers to get the land, get high plotratio, and bank loan, finally the thing will be done; Chip industry is time consuming, requiring the accumulation and training of technical personnel, the key word is innovation.

Real estate can rely on the abuse of power and corruption as the most nutritious soil; Chip industry’s soil is brainwashing education and copycatting ideology, the most unfavourable soil for innovation. In2003, real estate became the pillar industry as a fundamental policy, that is the bountiful sunlight, while chip industry is different, policy and money-throwing can hardly promote. Real estate has a base of1.3 billion people as the source of water, while domestic chips are purchased by the government as the source of water.

This kind of Ecology give birth to Chinese real estate and domestic chips, it determined the boom of real estate’s bubble and the failure of domestic chip industry. Even worse, this bubble is squeezing the space of high-tech industry badly: Like the tragedy says, one Chinese sold his house and20 years later, the money he earned form doing business can not buy his house back in Shenzhen. This metaphor clearly shows how real estate encourage people to abandon industry and invest in property.

What is ecology based on? It’s political system. Deep-rooted corruption, low-level human rights, brain-washing education, are the productions of one-party autocracy. For the prosperity of high-tech industry, we need freedom, liberty, ideological enlightenment rather than brainwashing education, respect human rights and intellectual property rather than encourage copycatting.

Ecology is the mother of industries, political system breeds ecology, the failure of previous Qing Dynasty is only learn technology, which is a reverse of cause and effect. To solve the problem, President Xi’s solution cant even cure the symptom, not to mention cure it thoroughly, the fundamental way is overturning the old system and restoring a health ecology.

Therefore, it’s easy to conclude that overthrow of the communist party’s dictatorship and move towards democracy is the foundation of healthy economical development.

阿波羅網責任編輯:江一  轉載請註明作者、出處並保持完整。

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